Urban Flood Risk Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment in Gwadar: A GIS-based Approach
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Urban flooding has become an increasingly severe global challenge, particularly affecting cities in developing nations where rapid and unregulated urbanization, deficient infrastructure, and climate change converge to create compounded risks. Gwadar, a strategic coastal city in Balochistan, Pakistan, exemplifies this vulnerability. Positioned at the heart of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the city is undergoing rapid transformation yet remains critically unprepared for recurring flood events. This research employs a mixed-methods design integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based spatial analysis with a survey-based socio-economic vulnerability assessment. High-resolution topographic data, land use classification, are combined with structured community surveys (N=286) to develop a comprehensive flood risk profile for Gwadar. A composite Urban Flood Risk Perception Index (UFRPI) is constructed using four dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and mitigation trust, reflecting how residents perceive and experience flood vulnerability. GIS-based flood risk maps reveal severe exposure in low-lying coastal areas including Faqeer Colony, Nayabad, Main Bazaar, and Old Town. Meanwhile, socio-economic indicators such as income, housing quality, and education level show a strong correlation with perceived risk, particularly in informal settlements. The UFRPI scores confirm significant concern over institutional readiness and resilience capacity.
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